released a grim report on Nigeria’s economy,
as
its Q1 2016 report showed that the nation’s real
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate
declined to -0.36 per cent compared to 2.11 per
cent in Q4 of 2015.
This latest report on the negative growth rate
may be a signal that the nation’s economy is
heading towards recession.
According to the report, unemployment rate in
the Nigerian economy climbed to 12.1 per cent
in the first quarter of this year of 2016
compared to 10.4 per cent in Q4 of 2015 and
9.9 per cent in the Q3 of 2015.
The report also shows that the economy
contracted to 3.86 per cent and 2.35 per cent
respectively in Q1 of 2015 and Q2 of 2015
before rebounding to 2.84 in Q3 and further
shrunk to 2.11 per cent Q4 of 2015.
The decline is the first contraction since June,
2004, making the economy to be at its lowest in
12-years.
Q1 growth rate was lower by 2.47 per cent from
the growth recorded in the preceding quarter
and further lower by 4.32 per cent from the rate
recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2015.
Quarter on quarter, real GDP slowed by 13.71
per cent, the NBS report said.
Oil production was not left out, as the level of
production fell by 0.07mbpd in comparison with
the corresponding quarter in 2015 when output
was recorded at 2.18mbpd.
The oil sector contributed 10.29 per cent to
total GDP, higher than the share in Q4 of 2015
by 2.24 per cent but marginally lower than the
contribution in the corresponding period of 2015.
However, real growth of the oil sector slowed
by 1.89 per cent (year-on-year) in Q1 of 2016.
According to the report, aggregate GDP stood at
N22.26 trillion (in nominal terms) at basic prices
or 14.15 per cent lower than the N24.31 trillion
in Q4 2015.
Nevertheless, the non-oil sector slowed 0.18 per
cent in real terms in Q1, representing 5.77 per
cent lower from the corresponding quarter in
2014 and 3.32 per cent lower than the previous
quarter.
The unemployment rate in the Nigerian
economy climbed to 12.1 per cent in the first
quarter 2016 compared to 10.4 per cent in Q4
of 2015 and 9.9 per cent in Q3 of 2015, as the
number of unemployed in the labour force
increased by about 1.449 million persons
between Q4 of 2015 and Q1 of 2016.
The report also noted that the country was
unable to create the 1.5 million jobs required
between Q4 of 2015 and Q1 of 2016 to keep the
unemployment rate constant at 10.4 per cent in
Q4 of 2015.
Also, the NBS stated that the active labour
population-those within the working age
population willing, able and actively looking for
work- increased 1.99 percent to 78.9 million in
Q1 compared to 76.96 million in Q4 of 2015 and
75.94million in Q3, adding that an additional
1,528,647 economically active persons within
ages 15-64 entered the labour force between
January 1 and March 31 2016 while
underemployment rate increased 19.1 per cent
from 18.7 per cent in Q4.
The report says: “The number of those not
willing or able, or not actively looking to work in
the economically active population however
declined to 27.5 million in Q1 of 2016 from
28.06 million in Q4 of 2015 meaning about 0.55
million people in the working age population that
chose not to work in Q4 of 2015 decided to
work in Q1 of 2016 thereby adding to the labour
force.
“This increase in underemployment is in line
with an increasing trend of informal sector job
creation outpacing formal sector job creation
forcing people to settle for less preferred
underemployment, but it also included those
that choose to work fewer hours or not be
engaged in work full time for various reasons.”
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